Abstract

Background: Advanced liver fibrosis (LF) is a major determinant of prognosis across chronic liver diseases. Current biomarkers are often etiology-specific and lack cross-cohort robustness. Shared molecular drivers across etiologies remain incompletely defined, and effective anti-fibrotic therapies are limited.Methods: We developed a multi-algorithm consensus machine-learning framework to derive a robust LF progression signature. In the training non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cohort GSE213621 (n= 368), samples were formulated as a binary classification task (mild fibrosis, F0–F2; advanced fibrosis, F3–F4). Candidate genes were screened in parallel using Boruta, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Genes selected by at least two algorithms were defined as a high-consensus pool, and genes consistently selected by all four algorithms were prioritized to construct a core signature. Model performance was evaluated by stratified cross-validation in the training cohort and externally validated in four independent cohorts of different etiologies (GSE49541, GSE84044, GSE130970, and GSE276114). Cellular sources of signature genes were characterized using single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) datasets GSE136103 (human) and GSE172492 (mouse). For therapeutic discovery, the high-consensus expression profile was queried against the Connectivity Map (CMap) to prioritize compounds predicted to reverse the fibrotic transcriptional program. Withaferin A (WFA) was selected for experimental validation in a carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced mouse LF model and in the transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1)-stimulated human hepatic stellate cell line LX-2. Bulk liver RNA-seq profiling was performed to interrogate WFA-associated molecular changes in vivo.Results: We identified a six-gene signature (CLEC4M, COL25A1, ITGBL1, NALCN, PAPPA, and PEG3) that discriminated advanced from mild fibrosis, achievin